Credible occurrence probabilities for extreme geophysical events: earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, magnetic storms
Geophysical Research Letters
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Abstract
Statistical analysis is made of rare, extreme geophysical events recorded in historical data -- counting the number of events $k$ with sizes that exceed chosen thresholds during specific durations of time $\tau$. Under transformations that stabilize data and model-parameter variances, the most likely Poisson-event occurrence rate, $k/\tau$, applies for frequentist inference and, also, for Bayesian inference with a Jeffreys prior that ensures posterior invariance under changes of variables. Frequentist confidence intervals and Bayesian (Jeffreys) credibility intervals are approximately the same and easy to calculate: $(1/\tau)[(\sqrt{k} - z/2)^{2},(\sqrt{k} + z/2)^{2}]$, where $z$ is a parameter that specifies the width, $z=1$ ($z=2$) corresponding to $1\sigma$, $68.3\%$ ($2\sigma$, $95.4\%$). If only a few events have been observed, as is usually the case for extreme events, then these "error-bar" intervals might be considered to be relatively wide. From historical records, we estimate most likely long-term occurrence rates, 10-yr occurrence probabilities, and intervals of frequentist confidence and Bayesian credibility for large earthquakes, explosive volcanic eruptions, and magnetic storms.
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Credible occurrence probabilities for extreme geophysical events: earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, magnetic storms |
| Series title | Geophysical Research Letters |
| DOI | 10.1029/2012GL051431 |
| Volume | 39 |
| Issue | 10 |
| Year Published | 2012 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | AGU |
| Publisher location | Washington, D.C. |
| Contributing office(s) | Geologic Hazards Science Center |
| Description | L10301 |
| Larger Work Type | Article |
| Larger Work Subtype | Journal Article |
| Larger Work Title | Geophysical Research Letters |
| Google Analytic Metrics | Metrics page |