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Natural climate variability and teleconnections to precipitation over the Pacific-North American region in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models

Geophysical Research Letters

By:
, , , ,
DOI: 10.1002/grl.50491

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Abstract

Natural climate variability will continue to be an important aspect of future regional climate even in the midst of long-term secular changes. Consequently, the ability of climate models to simulate major natural modes of variability and their teleconnections provides important context for the interpretation and use of climate change projections. Comparisons reported here indicate that the CMIP5 generation of global climate models shows significant improvements in simulations of key Pacific climate mode and their teleconnections to North America compared to earlier CMIP3 simulations. The performance of 14 models with simulations in both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 archives are assessed using singular value decomposition analysis of simulated and observed winter Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and concurrent precipitation over the contiguous United States and northwestern Mexico. Most of the models reproduce basic features of the key natural mode and their teleconnections, albeit with notable regional deviations from observations in both SST and precipitation. Increasing horizontal resolution in the CMIP5 simulations is an important, but not a necessary, factor in the improvement from CMIP3 to CMIP5.

Additional Publication Details

Publication type:
Article
Publication Subtype:
Journal Article
Title:
Natural climate variability and teleconnections to precipitation over the Pacific-North American region in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models
Series title:
Geophysical Research Letters
DOI:
10.1002/grl.50491
Volume
40
Issue:
10
Year Published:
2013
Language:
English
Publisher:
AGU
Contributing office(s):
National Research Program - Western Branch
Description:
6 p.
Larger Work Type:
Article
Larger Work Subtype:
Journal Article
Larger Work Title:
Geophysical Research Letters
First page:
2296
Last page:
2301