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Changes in population evacuation potential for tsunami hazards in Seward, Alaska, since the 1964 Good Friday earthquake

Natural Hazards

By:
, ,
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-013-0859-8

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Abstract

Pedestrian evacuation modeling for tsunami hazards typically focuses on current land-cover conditions and population distributions. To examine how post-disaster redevelopment may influence the evacuation potential of at-risk populations to future threats, we modeled pedestrian travel times to safety in Seward, Alaska, based on conditions before the 1964 Good Friday earthquake and tsunami disaster and on modern conditions. Anisotropic, path distance modeling is conducted to estimate travel times to safety during the 1964 event and in modern Seward, and results are merged with various population data, including the location and number of residents, employees, public venues, and dependent care facilities. Results suggest that modeled travel time estimates conform well to the fatality patterns of the 1964 event and that evacuation travel times have increased in modern Seward due to the relocation and expansion of port and harbor facilities after the disaster. The majority of individuals threatened by tsunamis today in Seward are employee, customer, and tourist populations, rather than residents in their homes. Modern evacuation travel times to safety for the majority of the region are less than wave arrival times for future tectonic tsunamis but greater than arrival times for landslide-related tsunamis. Evacuation travel times will likely be higher in the winter time, when the presence of snow may constrain evacuations to roads.

Geospatial Extents

Additional Publication Details

Publication type:
Article
Publication Subtype:
Journal Article
Title:
Changes in population evacuation potential for tsunami hazards in Seward, Alaska, since the 1964 Good Friday earthquake
Series title:
Natural Hazards
DOI:
10.1007/s11069-013-0859-8
Volume
70
Issue:
2
Year Published:
2014
Language:
English
Publisher:
Springer
Contributing office(s):
Western Geographic Science Center
Description:
23 p.
Larger Work Type:
Article
Larger Work Subtype:
Journal Article
Larger Work Title:
Natural Hazards
First page:
1031
Last page:
1053
Number of Pages:
23
Country:
United States
State:
Alaska
City:
Seward
Other Geospatial:
Resurrection Bay