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Land-use threats and protected areas: a scenario-based, landscape level approach

Land

By:
, , , and
DOI: 10.3390/land3020362

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Abstract

Anthropogenic land use will likely present a greater challenge to biodiversity than climate change this century in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Even if species are equipped with the adaptive capacity to migrate in the face of a changing climate, they will likely encounter a human-dominated landscape as a major dispersal obstacle. Our goal was to identify, at the ecoregion-level, protected areas in close proximity to lands with a higher likelihood of future land-use conversion. Using a state-and-transition simulation model, we modeled spatially explicit (1 km2) land use from 2000 to 2100 under seven alternative land-use and emission scenarios for ecoregions in the Pacific Northwest. We analyzed scenario-based land-use conversion threats from logging, agriculture, and development near existing protected areas. A conversion threat index (CTI) was created to identify ecoregions with highest projected land-use conversion potential within closest proximity to existing protected areas. Our analysis indicated nearly 22% of land area in the Coast Range, over 16% of land area in the Puget Lowland, and nearly 11% of the Cascades had very high CTI values. Broader regional-scale land-use change is projected to impact nearly 40% of the Coast Range, 30% of the Puget Lowland, and 24% of the Cascades (i.e., two highest CTI classes). A landscape level, scenario-based approach to modeling future land use helps identify ecoregions with existing protected areas at greater risk from regional land-use threats and can help prioritize future conservation efforts.

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Additional Publication Details

Publication type:
Article
Publication Subtype:
Journal Article
Title:
Land-use threats and protected areas: a scenario-based, landscape level approach
Series title:
Land
DOI:
10.3390/land3020362
Volume
3
Issue:
2
Year Published:
2014
Language:
English
Publisher:
MDPI
Publisher location:
Basel, Switzerland
Contributing office(s):
Western Geographic Science Center
Description:
28 p.
Larger Work Type:
Article
Larger Work Subtype:
Journal Article
Larger Work Title:
Land
First page:
362
Last page:
389
Country:
United States
Other Geospatial:
Pacific Northwest