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Mapping physiological suitability limits for malaria in Africa under climate change

Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases
By: , , , , , , and 
https://doi.org/10.1089/vbz.2015.1822

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Abstract

We mapped current and future temperature suitability for malaria transmission in Africa using a published model that incorporates nonlinear physiological responses to temperature of the mosquito vector Anopheles gambiae and the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum. We found that a larger area of Africa currently experiences the ideal temperature for transmission than previously supposed. Under future climate projections, we predicted a modest increase in the overall area suitable for malaria transmission, but a net decrease in the most suitable area. Combined with human population density projections, our maps suggest that areas with temperatures suitable for year-round, highest-risk transmission will shift from coastal West Africa to the Albertine Rift between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda, whereas areas with seasonal transmission suitability will shift toward sub-Saharan coastal areas. Mapping temperature suitability places important bounds on malaria transmissibility and, along with local level demographic, socioeconomic, and ecological factors, can indicate where resources may be best spent on malaria control.

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Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Mapping physiological suitability limits for malaria in Africa under climate change
Series title Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases
DOI 10.1089/vbz.2015.1822
Volume 15
Issue 12
Year Published 2015
Language English
Publisher Mary Ann Liebert, Inc.
Publisher location New Rochelle, NY
Contributing office(s) Western Ecological Research Center
Description 8 p.
First page 718
Last page 725
Other Geospatial Africa
Online Only (Y/N) N
Additional Online Files (Y/N) N
Google Analytic Metrics Metrics page
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