Quasi-extinction risk and population targets for the Eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus)
Links
- More information: Publisher Index Page (via DOI)
- Open Access Version: Publisher Index Page
- Download citation as: RIS | Dublin Core
Abstract
The Eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus), an iconic North American insect, has declined by ~80% over the last decade. The monarch’s multi-generational migration between overwintering grounds in central Mexico and the summer breeding grounds in the northern U.S. and southern Canada is celebrated in all three countries and creates shared management responsibilities across North America. Here we present a novel Bayesian multivariate auto-regressive state-space model to assess quasi-extinction risk and aid in the establishment of a target population size for monarch conservation planning. We find that, given a range of plausible quasi-extinction thresholds, the population has a substantial probability of quasi-extinction, from 11–57% over 20 years, although uncertainty in these estimates is large. Exceptionally high population stochasticity, declining numbers, and a small current population size act in concert to drive this risk. An approximately 5-fold increase of the monarch population size (relative to the winter of 2014–15) is necessary to halve the current risk of quasi-extinction across all thresholds considered. Conserving the monarch migration thus requires active management to reverse population declines, and the establishment of an ambitious target population size goal to buffer against future environmentally driven variability.
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Quasi-extinction risk and population targets for the Eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) |
| Series title | Scientific Reports |
| DOI | 10.1038/srep23265 |
| Volume | 6 |
| Year Published | 2016 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Nature Publishing Group |
| Contributing office(s) | Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center, John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis |
| Description | Article number 23265; 7 p. |
| Online Only (Y/N) | N |
| Additional Online Files (Y/N) | N |
| Google Analytic Metrics | Metrics page |