Accounting for adaptive capacity and uncertainty in assessments of species’ climate-change vulnerability
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Abstract
Climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are valuable tools for assessing species’ vulnerability to climatic changes, yet failure to include measures of adaptive capacity and to account for sources of uncertainty may limit their effectiveness. Here, we provide a more comprehensive CCVA approach that incorporates all three elements used for assessing species’ climate change vulnerability: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. We illustrate our approach using case studies of two threatened salmonids with different life histories – anadromous steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and non-anadromous bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) – within the Columbia River Basin, USA. We identified general patterns of high vulnerability in low-elevation and southernmost habitats for both species. However, vulnerability rankings varied widely depending on the factors (climate, habitat, demographic, and genetic) included in the CCVA and often differed for the two species at locations where they were sympatric. Our findings illustrate that CCVA results are highly sensitive to data inputs and that spatial differences can complicate multi-species conservation. Our results highlight how CCVAs should be considered within a broader conceptual and computational framework for refining hypotheses, guiding research, and comparing plausible scenarios of species’ vulnerability for ongoing and projected climate change.
Publication type | Article |
---|---|
Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
Title | Accounting for adaptive capacity and uncertainty in assessments of species’ climate-change vulnerability |
Series title | Conservation Biology |
DOI | 10.1111/cobi.12764 |
Volume | 31 |
Issue | 1 |
Year Published | 2016 |
Language | English |
Publisher | Society for Conservation Biology |
Publisher location | Malden, MA |
Contributing office(s) | Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center |
Description | 14 p. |
First page | 136 |
Last page | 149 |
Country | United States |
Other Geospatial | Columbia River Basin |
Online Only (Y/N) | N |
Additional Online Files (Y/N) | N |
Google Analytic Metrics | Metrics page |