Trimming a hazard logic tree with a new model-order-reduction technique
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Abstract
The size of the logic tree within the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3, Time-Dependent (UCERF3-TD) model can challenge risk analyses of large portfolios. An insurer or catastrophe risk modeler concerned with losses to a California portfolio might have to evaluate a portfolio 57,600 times to estimate risk in light of the hazard possibility space. Which branches of the logic tree matter most, and which can one ignore? We employed two model-order-reduction techniques to simplify the model. We sought a subset of parameters that must vary, and the specific fixed values for the remaining parameters, to produce approximately the same loss distribution as the original model. The techniques are (1) a tornado-diagram approach we employed previously for UCERF2, and (2) an apparently novel probabilistic sensitivity approach that seems better suited to functions of nominal random variables. The new approach produces a reduced-order model with only 60 of the original 57,600 leaves. One can use the results to reduce computational effort in loss analyses by orders of magnitude.
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Trimming a hazard logic tree with a new model-order-reduction technique |
| Series title | Earthquake Spectra |
| DOI | 10.1193/092616EQS158M |
| Volume | 33 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Year Published | 2017 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Earthquake Engineering Research Institute |
| Contributing office(s) | Geologic Hazards Science Center |
| Description | 18 p. |
| First page | 857 |
| Last page | 874 |
| Google Analytic Metrics | Metrics page |