Climate changes and wildfire alter vegetation of Yellowstone National Park, but forest cover persists
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Abstract
We present landscape simulation results contrasting effects of changing climates on forest vegetation and fire regimes in Yellowstone National Park, USA, by mid-21st century. We simulated potential changes to fire dynamics and forest characteristics under three future climate projections representing a range of potential future conditions using the FireBGCv2 model. Under the future climate scenarios with moderate warming (>2°C) and moderate increases in precipitation (3–5%), model simulations resulted in 1.2–4.2 times more burned area, decreases in forest cover (10–44%), and reductions in basal area (14–60%). In these same scenarios, lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) decreased in basal area (18–41%), while Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) basal area increased (21–58%). Conversely, mild warming (<2°C) coupled with greater increases in precipitation (12–13%) suggested an increase in forest cover and basal area by mid-century, with spruce and subalpine fir increasing in abundance. Overall, we found changes in forest tree species compositions were caused by the climate-mediated changes in fire regime (56–315% increase in annual area burned). Simulated changes in forest composition and fire regime under warming climates portray a landscape that shifts from lodgepole pine to Douglas-fir caused by the interaction between the magnitude and seasonality of future climate changes, by climate-induced changes in the frequency and intensity of wildfires, and by tree species response.
Study Area
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Climate changes and wildfire alter vegetation of Yellowstone National Park, but forest cover persists |
| Series title | Ecosphere |
| DOI | 10.1002/ecs2.1636 |
| Volume | 8 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Year Published | 2017 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Ecological Society of America |
| Contributing office(s) | Alaska Science Center Geography |
| Description | e01636; 16 p. |
| Country | United States |
| State | Wyoming |
| Other Geospatial | Yellowstone National Park |
| Google Analytic Metrics | Metrics page |