The fate of Madagascar's rainforest habitat

Toni Lyn Morelli; Adam B. Smith; Amanda N. Mancini; Elizabeth A. Balko; Cortni Borgerson; Rainer Dolch; Zachary Farris; Sarah Federman; Christopher Golden; Sheila Holmes; Mitchell Irwin; Rachel Jacobs; Steig Johnson; Tony King; Shawn Lehman; Edward E. Louis Jr.; Asia Murphy; Hery N. T. Randriahaingo; H. L. Lucien Randrianarimanana; Jonah Ratsimbazafy; Onja H. Razafindratsima; Andrea Baden

doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0647-x

The fate of Madagascar's rainforest habitat

Nature Climate Change

By: Toni Lyn Morelli, Adam B. Smith, Amanda N. Mancini, Elizabeth A. Balko, Cortni Borgerson, Rainer Dolch, Zachary Farris, Sarah Federman, Christopher Golden, Sheila Holmes, Mitchell Irwin, Rachel Jacobs, Steig Johnson, Tony King, Shawn Lehman, Edward E. Louis Jr., Asia Murphy, Hery N. T. Randriahaingo, H. L. Lucien Randrianarimanana, Jonah Ratsimbazafy, Onja H. Razafindratsima, and Andrea Baden

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0647-x

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Abstract

Madagascar has experienced extensive deforestation and overharvesting, and anthropogenic climate change will compound these pressures. Anticipating these threats to endangered species and their ecosystems requires considering both climate change and habitat loss effects. The genus Varecia (ruffed lemurs), which is composed of two Critically Endangered forest-obligate species, can serve as a status indicator of the biodiverse eastern rainforest of Madagascar. Here, we combined decades of research to show that the suitable habitat for ruffed lemurs could be reduced by 29–59% from deforestation, 14–75% from climate change (representative concentration pathway 8.5) or 38–93% from both by 2070. If current protected areas avoid further deforestation, climate change will still reduce the suitable habitat by 62% (range: 38–83%). If ongoing deforestation continues, the suitable habitat will decline by 81% (range: 66–93%). Maintaining and enhancing the integrity of protected areas, where rates of forest loss are lower, will be essential for ensuring persistence of the diversity of the rapidly diminishing Malagasy rainforests.

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Additional publication details
Publication type	Article
Publication Subtype	Journal Article
Title	The fate of Madagascar's rainforest habitat
Series title	Nature Climate Change
DOI	10.1038/s41558-019-0647-x
Volume	10
Year Published	2020
Language	English
Publisher	Nature
Contributing office(s)	Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center
Description	8 p.
First page	89
Last page	96
Country	Madagascar
Google Analytic Metrics	Metrics page