Construction of probabilistic event trees for eruption forecasting at Sinabung volcano, Indonesia 2013–14

Heather M. Wright; John S. Pallister; Wendy A. McCausland; Julia P. Griswold; Supriyati Andreastuti; Agus Budianto; Sofyan Primulyana; Maurizio Battaglia; Angie Diefenbach; John W. Ewert; Peter J. Kelly; Christoph Kern; Martin R. LaFevers; Andrew B. Lockhart; Jeffrey N. Marso; Gari C. Mayberry; Steve P. Schilling; Rick Wessels; Randall A. White; Nurnaning Aisyah; Nugraha Kartadinata; Kristianto; Raditya Putra; Ugan Boyson Saing; Agus Solihin; Yasa Suparman; Devy Damil Syahbana; Hetty Triastuty

doi:10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2018.02.003

Construction of probabilistic event trees for eruption forecasting at Sinabung volcano, Indonesia 2013–14

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research

CVGHM, Indonesia

By: Heather M. Wright, John S. Pallister, Wendy A. McCausland, Julia P. Griswold, Supriyati Andreastuti, Agus Budianto, Sofyan Primulyana, Maurizio Battaglia, Angie Diefenbach, John W. Ewert, Peter J. Kelly, Christoph Kern, Martin R. LaFevers, Andrew B. Lockhart, Jeffrey N. Marso, Gari C. Mayberry, Steve P. Schilling, Rick Wessels, Randall A. White, Nurnaning Aisyah, Nugraha Kartadinata, Kristianto, Raditya Putra, Ugan Boyson Saing, Agus Solihin, Yasa Suparman, Devy Damil Syahbana, and Hetty Triastuty

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2018.02.003

Abstract

Eruptions of Sinabung volcano, Indonesia have been ongoing since 2013. Since that time, the character of eruptions has changed, from phreatic to phreatomagmatic to magmatic explosive eruptions, and from production of a lava dome that collapsed to a subsequent thick lava flow that slowly ceased to be active, and later, to a new lava dome. As the eruption progressed, event trees were constructed to forecast eruptive behavior six times, with forecast windows that ranged from 2 weeks to 1 year: November 7–10, December 12–14, and December 27, 2013; and January 9–10, May 13, and October 7, 2014. These event trees were successful in helping to frame the forecast scenarios, to collate current monitoring information, and to document outstanding questions and unknowns. The highest probability forecasts closely matched outcomes of eruption size (including extrusion of the first dome), production of pyroclastic density currents, and pyroclastic density current runout distances. Events assigned low probabilities also occurred, including total collapse of the lava dome in January 2014 and production of a small blast pyroclastic density current in February 2014.

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Additional publication details
Publication type	Article
Publication Subtype	Journal Article
Title	Construction of probabilistic event trees for eruption forecasting at Sinabung volcano, Indonesia 2013–14
Series title	Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research
DOI	10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2018.02.003
Volume	382
Year Published	2019
Language	English
Publisher	Elsevier
Contributing office(s)	Volcano Science Center
Description	20 p.
First page	233
Last page	252
Country	Indonesia
Other Geospatial	Sinabung volcano
Google Analytic Metrics	Metrics page

Construction of probabilistic event trees for eruption forecasting at Sinabung volcano, Indonesia 2013–14

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Abstract

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