Updating estimates of low-streamflow statistics to account for possible trends
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Abstract
Accurate estimators of streamflow statistics are critical to the design, planning, and management of water resources. Given increasing evidence of trends in low-streamflow, new approaches to estimating low-streamflow statistics are needed. Here we investigate simple approaches to select a recent subset of the low-flow record to update the commonly used statistic of 7Q10, the annual minimum 7-day streamflow exceeded in 9 out of 10 years on average. Informed by low-streamflow records at 174 US Geological Survey streamgages, Monte Carlo simulation experiments evaluate competing approaches. We find that a strategy which estimates 7Q10 using the most recent 30 years of record when a trend is detected, reduces error and bias in 7Q10 estimators compared to use of the full record. This simple rule-based approach has potential as the basis for a framework for updating frequency-based statistics in the context of possible trends.
Study Area
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Updating estimates of low-streamflow statistics to account for possible trends |
| Series title | Hydrologic Sciences Journal |
| DOI | 10.1080/02626667.2019.1655148 |
| Volume | 6 |
| Issue | 12 |
| Year Published | 2019 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Taylor and Francis |
| Contributing office(s) | WMA - Integrated Modeling and Prediction Division |
| Description | 11 p. |
| First page | 1404 |
| Last page | 1414 |
| Country | United States |
| Google Analytic Metrics | Metrics page |