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Uncertainty and inferred reserve estimates; the 1995 National Assessment

Bulletin 2172-G

By:
and

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Abstract

Inferred reserves are expected additions to proved reserves of oil and gas fields discovered as of a certain date. Inferred reserves accounted for 65 percent of the total oil and 34 percent of the total gas assessed in the U.S. Geological Survey's 1995 National Assessment of oil and gas in onshore and State offshore areas. The assessment predicted that over the 80-year period from 1992 through 2071, the sizes of pre-1992 discoveries in the lower 48 onshore and State offshore areas will increase by 48 billion barrels of oil (BBO) and 313 trillion cubic feet of wet gas (TCF). At that time, only point estimates were reported. This study presents a scheme to compute confidence intervals for these estimates. The recentered 90 percent confidence interval for the estimated inferred oil of 48 BBO is 25 BBO and 82 BBO. Similarly, the endpoints of the confidence interval about inferred reserve estimate of 313 TCF are 227 TCF and 439 TCF. The range of the estimates provides a basis for development of scenarios for projecting reserve additions and ultimately oil and gas production, information important to energy policy analysis.

Additional Publication Details

Publication type:
Report
Publication Subtype:
USGS Numbered Series
Title:
Uncertainty and inferred reserve estimates; the 1995 National Assessment
Series title:
Bulletin
Series number:
2172
Chapter:
G
Edition:
Version 1.0
Year Published:
2003
Language:
ENGLISH
Description:
8 p.