Emergency Assessment of Debris-Flow Hazards from Basins Burned by the Piru, Simi, and Verdale Fires of 2003, Southern California

Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Rupert, Michael G.; Michael, John A.

Abstract:

These maps present preliminary assessments of the probability of debris-flow activity and estimates of peak discharges that can potentially be generated by debris-flows issuing from basins burned by the Piru, Simi and Verdale Fires of October 2003 in southern California in response to the 25-year, 10-year, and 2-year 1-hour rain storms. The probability maps are based on the application of a logistic multiple regression model that describes the percent chance of debris-flow production from an individual basin as a function of burned extent, soil properties, basin gradients and storm rainfall. The peak discharge maps are based on application of a multiple-regression model that can be used to estimate debris-flow peak discharge at a basin outlet as a function of basin gradient, burn extent, and storm rainfall. Probabilities of debris-flow occurrence for the Piru Fire range between 2 and 94% and estimates of debris flow peak discharges range between 1,200 and 6,640 ft3/s (34 to 188 m3/s). Basins burned by the Simi Fire show probabilities for debris-flow occurrence between 1 and 98%, and peak discharge estimates between 1,130 and 6,180 ft3/s (32 and 175 m3/s). The probabilities for debris-flow activity calculated for the Verdale Fire range from negligible values to 13%. Peak discharges were not estimated for this fire because of these low probabilities. These maps are intended to identify those basins that are most prone to the largest debris-flow events and provide information for the preliminary design of mitigation measures and for the planning of evacuation timing and routes.

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USGS Numbered Series

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53246

Citation Author:

Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Rupert, Michael G.; Michael, John A.

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Version 1.0

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ENGLISH

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1 over-sized sheet, 66 by 36 inches

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Open-File Report

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OFR

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2003-481

Citation Search Results Text:

Emergency Assessment of Debris-Flow Hazards from Basins Burned by the Piru, Simi, and Verdale Fires of 2003, Southern California; 2003; OFR; 2003-481; Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Rupert, Michael G.; Michael, John A.