Watershed regressions for pesticides (WARP) for predicting atrazine concentration in Corn Belt streams

Open-File Report 2011-1141

National Water-Quality Assessment Program



Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) models, previously developed for atrazine at the national scale, can be improved for application to the U.S. Corn Belt region by developing region-specific models that include important watershed characteristics that are influential in predicting atrazine concentration statistics within the Corn Belt. WARP models for the Corn Belt (WARP-CB) were developed for predicting annual maximum moving-average (14-, 21-, 30-, 60-, and 90-day durations) and annual 95th-percentile atrazine concentrations in streams of the Corn Belt region. All streams used in development of WARP-CB models drain watersheds with atrazine use intensity greater than 17 kilograms per square kilometer (kg/km2). The WARP-CB models accounted for 53 to 62 percent of the variability in the various concentration statistics among the model-development sites. The 95-percent prediction intervals are well within a factor of 10 above and below the predicted concentration statistic. WARP-CB model predictions were within a factor of 5 of the observed concentration statistic for over 90 percent of the model-development sites. The WARP-CB residuals and uncertainty are lower than those of the National WARP model for the same sites. The WARP-CB models provide improved predictions of the probability of exceeding a specified criterion or benchmark for Corn Belt streams draining watersheds with high atrazine use intensities; however, National WARP models should be used for Corn Belt streams where atrazine use intensities are less than 17 kg/km2 of watershed area.

Additional publication details

Publication type:
Publication Subtype:
USGS Numbered Series
Watershed regressions for pesticides (WARP) for predicting atrazine concentration in Corn Belt streams
Series title:
Open-File Report
Series number:
Year Published:
U.S. Geological Survey
Contributing office(s):
Indiana Water Science Center
vii, 15 p.; Appendices; Appendix 1; Appendix 2
Additional Online Files (Y/N):