Factors affecting water-quality trends in urban streams are not well understood, despite current regulatory requirements and considerable ongoing investments in gray and green infrastructure. To address this gap, long-term water-quality trends and factors affecting these trends were examined in the Gwynns Falls, Maryland, watershed during 1998–2016 in cooperation with Blue Water Baltimore. Data on water-quality constituents and potential factors of influence were obtained from multiple sources and compiled for analysis, with a focus on data collected as part of the National Science Foundation funded Long-Term Ecological Research project, the Baltimore Ecosystem Study.

Variability in climate (specifically, precipitation) and land cover can overwhelm actions taken to improve water quality and can present challenges for meeting regulatory goals. Analysis of land cover during 2001–11 in the Gwynns Falls watershed indicated minimal change during the study time frame; therefore, land-cover change is likely not a factor affecting trends in water quality. However, a modest increase in annual precipitation and a significant increase in winter precipitation were apparent in the region. A higher proportion of runoff producing storms was observed in the winter and a lower proportion in the summer, indicating that climate change may affect water quality in the watershed. The increase in precipitation was not reflected in annual or seasonal trends of streamflow in the watershed. Nonetheless, these precipitation changes may exacerbate the inflow and infiltration of water to gray infrastructure and reduce the effectiveness of green infrastructure. For streamflow and most water-quality constituents examined, no discernable trends were noted over the timeframe examined. Despite the increases in precipitation, no trends were observed for annual or seasonal discharge at the various sites within the study area. In some locations, nitrate, phosphate, and total nitrogen show downward trends, and total phosphorus and chloride show upward trends.

Sanitary sewer overflows (gray infrastructure) and best management practices (green infrastructure) were identified as factors affecting water-quality change. The duration of sanitary sewer overflows was positively correlated with annual loads of nutrients and bacteria, and the drainage area of best management practices was negatively correlated with annual loads of phosphate and sulfate. Results of the study indicate that continued investments in gray and green infrastructure are necessary for urban water-quality improvement. Although this outcome is not unexpected, long-term datasets such as the one used in this study, allow the effects of gray and green infrastructures to be quantified.

Results of this study have implications for the Gwynns Falls watershed and its residents and Baltimore City and County managers. Moreover, outcomes are relevant to other watersheds in the metropolitan region that do not have the same long-term dataset. Further, this study has established a framework for ongoing statistical analysis of primary factors affecting urban water-quality trends as regulatory programs mature.