| Abstract: | In order to quantify the uncertainty of estimates of the geothermal resource base in identified hydrothermal convection systems, a methodology is presented for combining estimates with uncertainties for temperature, area, and thickness of a geothermal reservoir into an estimate of the stored energy with uncertainty. Probability density functions for temperature, area, and thickness are assumed to be triangular in form. In order to calculate the probability distribution function for the stored energy in a single system or in many systems, a computer program for aggregating the input distribution functions using the Monte-Carlo method has been developed.
To calculate the probability distribution of stored energy in a single system, an analytical expression is also obtained that is useful for calibrating the Monte Carlo approximation. For the probability distributions of stored energy in a single and in many systems, the central limit approximation is shown to give results ranging from good to poor. |
| Genre: | USGS Numbered Series |
| ProdID: | 20256 |
| Citation Author: | Nathenson, Manuel |
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| Citation Language: | ENGLISH |
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| Citation Phsyical Description: | 39 leaves, 11 leaves of plates :ill. ;27 cm.; (51 p. - PGS) |
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| Citation Publisher: | U.S. Geological Survey, |
| Citation Series: | Open-File Report |
| Citation Series Code: | OFR |
| Citation Series Number: | 78-1003 |
| Citation Search Results Text: | Methodology of determining the uncertainty in the accessible geothermal resource base of identified hydrothermal convection systems; 1978; OFR; 78-1003; Nathenson, Manuel |
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| Citation Year: | 1978 |
| Type: | citation/reference |
| Text: | Methodology of determining the uncertainty in the accessible geothermal resource base of identified hydrothermal convection systems; 1978; OFR; 78-1003; Nathenson, Manuel |
| URL (THUMBNAIL): | http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/1978/1003/report-thumb.jpg |
| URL (DOCUMENT): | http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/1978/1003/report.pdf |
| Date Other: | Sat, 1 Jan 1994 00:00 -0600 |
| Publisher: | U.S. Geological Survey, |
