A numerical ground-water-flow model was used to investigate the effects of irrigation on ground-water levels in the southern Lihue Basin, Kauai, Hawaii, and the relation between declining ground-water levels observed in the basin in the 1990s and early 2000s and concurrent drought, irrigation reduction, and changes in ground-water withdrawal. Results of steady-state model simulations indicate that changing from pre-development to 1981 irrigation and ground-water-withdrawal conditions could, given enough time for steady state to be achieved, raise ground-water levels in some areas of the southern Lihue Basin by as much as 200 feet, and that changing from 1981 to 1998 irrigation and ground-water-withdrawal conditions could lower ground-water levels in some areas by as much as 100 feet. Transient simulations combining drought, irrigation reduction, and changes in ground-water withdrawal show trends that correspond with those observed in measured water levels. Results of this study indicate that irrigation reduction was the primary cause of the observed decline in ground-water-levels. In contrast, ground-water withdrawal had a long-duration but small-magnitude effect, and drought had a widespread, high-magnitude but short-duration effect. Inasmuch as irrigation in the future is unlikely to return to the same levels as during the period of peak sugarcane agriculture, the decline in ground-water levels resulting from the reduction and ultimate end of sugarcane irrigation can be considered permanent. Assuming that irrigation does not return to the southern Lihue Basin and that, on average, normal rainfall persists and ground-water withdrawal remains at 1998 rates, model projections indicate that average ground-water levels in the Kilohana-Puhi area will continue to recover from the drought of 1998-2002 and eventually rise to within about 4 feet of the pre-drought conditions. Long-term climate trends, increases in ground-water withdrawal, or other factors not simulated in the model could also affect ground-water levels in the southern Lihue Basin in the future.