Chronology of Postglacial Eruptive Activity and Calculation of Eruption Probabilities for Medicine Lake Volcano, Northern California

Nathenson, Manuel; Donnelly-Nolan, Julie M.; Champion, Duane
E.; Lowenstern, Jacob B.

Abstract:

Medicine Lake volcano has had 4 eruptive episodes in its postglacial history (since 13,000 years ago) comprising 16 eruptions. Time intervals between events within the episodes are relatively short, whereas time intervals between the episodes are much longer. An updated radiocarbon chronology for these eruptions is presented that uses paleomagnetic data to constrain the choice of calibrated ages. This chronology is used with exponential, Weibull, and mixed-exponential probability distributions to model the data for time intervals between eruptions. The mixed exponential distribution is the best match to the data and provides estimates for the conditional probability of a future eruption given the time since the last eruption. The probability of an eruption at Medicine Lake volcano in the next year from today is 0.00028.

Genre:

USGS Numbered Series

ProdID:

80469

Citation Author:

Nathenson, Manuel; Donnelly-Nolan, Julie M.; Champion, Duane E.; Lowenstern, Jacob B.

Citation Contributing Office:

USGS Volcano Hazards Program

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Citation Language:

ENGLISH

Citation Larger Work Title:

Citation LatN:

0421200

Citation LatS:

0410000

Citation LonE:

-1204800

Citation LonW:

-1221200

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Citation Phsyical Description:

iii, 10 p.

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Citation Publisher:

Geological Survey (U.S.)

Citation Series:

Scientific Investigations Report

Citation Series Code:

SIR

Citation Series Number:

2007-5174-B

Citation Search Results Text:

Chronology of Postglacial Eruptive Activity and Calculation of Eruption Probabilities for Medicine Lake Volcano, Northern California; 2007; SIR; 2007-5174-B; Nathenson, Manuel; Donnelly-Nolan, Julie M.; Champion, Duane E.; Lowenstern, Jacob B.