The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas State Soil and Water Conservation Board and the Upper Guadalupe River Authority, developed and calibrated a Soil and Water Assessment Tool watershed model of the upper Guadalupe River watershed in south-central Texas to simulate streamflow and the effects of brush management on water yields in the watershed and to Canyon Lake for 1995–2010. Model simulations were done to quantify the possible change in water yield of individual subbasins in the upper Guadalupe River watershed as a result of the replacement of ashe juniper (Juniperus ashei) with grasslands. The simulation results will serve as a tool for resource managers to guide their brush-management efforts.

Model hydrology was calibrated with streamflow data collected at the U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station 08167500 Guadalupe River near Spring Branch, Tex., for 1995–2010. Simulated monthly streamflow showed very good agreement with measured monthly streamflow: a percent bias of -5, a coefficient of determination of 0.91, and a Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of model efficiency of 0.85.

Modified land-cover input datasets were generated for the model in order to simulate the replacement of ashe juniper with grasslands in 23 brush-management subbasins in the watershed. Each of the 23 simulations showed an increase in simulated water yields in the targeted subbasins and to Canyon Lake. The simulated increases in average annual water yields in the subbasins ranged from 6,370 to 119,000 gallons per acre of ashe juniper replaced with grasslands with an average of 38,900 gallons. The simulated increases in average annual water yields to Canyon Lake from upstream subbasins ranged from 6,640 to 72,700 gallons per acre of ashe juniper replaced with grasslands with an average of 34,700 gallons.