The Partridge River Basin (PRB) covers 156 square miles in northeastern Minnesota with headwaters in the Mesabi Iron Range. The basin is characterized by extensive wetlands, lakes, and streams in poorly drained and often thin glacial material overlying Proterozoic bedrock. To better understand the interaction between these extensive surface water features and the groundwater system, a three-dimensional, steady-state, groundwater-flow model of the PRB was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Great Lakes Indian Fish & Wildlife Commission using the finite-difference computer code MODFLOW-NWT. The model simulates steady-state base flow in streams and groundwater interactions using the streamflow routing (SFR2) package. Existing mining features including tailings basins, stockpiles, pumped mine pits, and flooded mine pits were simulated using either high hydraulic conductivity zones or the drain (DRN) package. The unsaturated zone flow (UZF) package was used to better represent the groundwater system in areas with a high water table and for wetlands often associated with such areas. UZF typically is used to represent unsaturated zone processes but also can simulate the rejection of recharge and groundwater discharge to the land surface when the water table is near land surface. The steady-state model used data from the 2011 to 2013 period when 2011 high-resolution land surface (light detecting and ranging [lidar]) data were available that reflected land-surface and water elevations from mining activity in the basin. The parameter-estimation software suite PEST_HP was used to obtain a best fit of the modeled to measured groundwater levels, streamflow, pit inflow rates, and mapped peat deposits. The PEST calibration used the target residuals from two models with the same model parameters and targets from two separate periods: (1) a 1995–2015 calibration model, which provided a larger number of calibration targets, and (2) a 2011–2013 mining conditions model, which included calibration targets that reflected conditions consistent with the modeled mine-workings topography.

Calibration of the PRB model resulted in ranges of glacial horizontal hydraulic conductivity parameters that generally agreed with literature values and other models of the region. Horizontal hydraulic conductivity of the bedrock was higher in the upper bedrock layers where numerous and continuous fractures have been observed and lower in the deeper bedrock layers. Average basin-wide calibrated infiltration was 5.3 inches per year. An average of 4.6 inches per year of infiltration crosses the water table and becomes recharge and 0.7 inch per year is rejected by UZF due to saturated conditions at the land surface. Simulated groundwater runoff (the sum of rejected recharge and groundwater seepage to the land surface) can either be routed to streams or removed from the model as evapotranspiration. The calibrated model indicates relatively shallow groundwater-flow paths dominating and approximately 50 percent of the stream base flow coming from groundwater runoff.

The 2011–2013 mining conditions model was then used to develop five model scenarios simulating the response of the groundwater and surface-water system to potential hydrologic stress. The purpose of these mine pit scenarios is to present a possible workflow to quantify a model’s uncertainty for a given model forecast and serve as a possible guide for initial data collection that may improve a future model’s ability to make such a forecast. The scenarios included one scenario with the currently existing Peter Mitchell pit at final buildout and flooded to an elevation of 1,500 feet, and four scenarios with a hypothetical, new mine pit plus the flooded Peter Mitchell at final buildout. The five model scenarios were used to forecast streamflow at six locations in the PRB, pit inflow rates for the new mine pits and the flooded Peter Mitchell pit, and the average depth to water in 12 wetlands. A linear uncertainty analysis was performed using information from the PEST calibration and tools in the PyEMU python package to assess model uncertainty propagation to the model forecasts. Streamflows generally were reduced with future mining and the greatest streamflow reductions occurred from the flooded Peter Mitchell Pit, probably due to its large size. Average depth to groundwater in wetlands was most affected the closer the wetland was to a new mine pit.

Linear uncertainty methods were also used to evaluate data worth, which is the ability for potential new groundwater elevation observations to reduce the uncertainty in scenario forecasts. Data worth was performed for a grid of new hydraulic head observations. Overall, areas with nonnegligible data worth generally corresponded to wetland areas with no groundwater seepage to land surface from UZF. These model behaviors indicated that the land-surface boundary condition simulated by the UZF package was pinning the groundwater elevations to the land surface in areas with groundwater seepage (33 percent of the 2011–2013 base conditions model) such that the sensitivity to new observations in these areas was minimal. Therefore, representing wetlands as boundary conditions minimized the usefulness of data worth calculations because wetland areas were present over a large part of the model domain.

Probabilistic capture zones were estimated for each of the mines in the model scenarios. A capture zone represents the area contributing recharge to a model feature, like a well or a mine pit, and can be calculated by forward tracking particles from the water table. By using Monte Carlo techniques, it is possible to generate estimated capture zones that include the probability of recharge capture given the uncertainty present in the model. Monte Carlo techniques use randomly generated model parameter sets sampled from a plausible parameter range to create many possible realizations. The resulting capture zone arrays were calculated by tallying the total number of realizations in which a particle from a model cell was captured by the feature. Probabilities from the Monte Carlo runs ranged from 1 (captured in 100 percent of the runs) near the pits to 0 (captured in 0 percent of the runs) at the edges of the capture zone. Capture zones were not always spatially continuous; for example, the capture zone for the proposed mine pits south of the flooded Peter Mitchell pit was discontinuous with capture surrounding the proposed mine pit and north of the flooded Peter Mitchell pit. This northern section represents deeper groundwater flow paths that originate in the topographic high, move under the flooded pit, and discharge into the proposed pit. This pattern of capture indicates the possibility of some deeper flow through the upper fractured bedrock when the shallow groundwater flow system is modified. These results underscore that future site-specific applications of the base condition model require the input of site-specific data and recalibration to focus on the site of interest.