A probability map constructed for this study identified several areas in a six-county region of south-central Idaho with high probabilities of detecting elevated concentrations (greater than 2 milligrams per liter) of nitrate. An increasing proportion of Idaho’s ground water being used for drinking water and large increases in the inputs of nitrogen to ground water in Cassia, Gooding, Jerome, Lincoln, Minidoka, and Twin Falls Counties have prompted concerns about the quality of the resource. The probability map was constructed to assist regulatory and resource agencies in managing land use and protecting water resources. To construct the probability map, hydrogeologic and anthropogenic data were integrated with ground-water quality data in a geographic information system. The resulting data set contained land use, geology, precipitation, soil characteristics, depth to ground water, nitrogen input, and ground-water velocity information for each of the 1,365 samples collected from 1991 to 2001. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine the most statistically significant variables related to the detection of elevated nitrate concentrations. The resulting multivariate probability model showed that ground-water velocity, nitrogen input, precipitation, soil drainage, land use, and depth to ground water were significantly correlated with elevated nitrate concentrations. A subset of the water-quality data set was used to verify these results. Linear regression of the percentage of predicted probabilities of elevated nitrate concentrations and the actual percentage of elevated nitrate concentrations with the model data set and the verification data set both showed good correlations: r-squared values were 0.96 and 0.97, respectively. Statistical comparisons of both data sets showed that ground-water samples containing elevated nitrate concentrations had significantly higher probabilities of detection (p < 0.001) than samples without elevated nitrate concentrations. On the basis of these results, a map identifying the probability of detecting elevated nitrate concentrations was constructed. High-probability areas on the map coincided with regions of agricultural land use and high nitrogen input, except in southern Gooding County and western Jerome County. In these areas, high ground-water velocities representing a predominance of regional ground water resulted in a low probability of detecting elevated nitrate concentrations. Areas of poor prediction tended to be congregated along the transition zone between high and low ground-water velocities in Jerome and Gooding Counties, indicating a mix of regional and recently recharged ground water.