Sensitivity analysis of a multilayer, finite-difference model of the Southeastern Coastal Plain regional aquifer system; Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina

Pernik, Meribeth

Abstract:

The sensitivity of a multilayer finite-difference regional flow model was tested by changing the calibrated values for five parameters in the steady-state model and one in the transient-state model. The parameters that changed under the steady-state condition were those that had been routinely adjusted during the calibration process as part of the effort to match pre-development potentiometric surfaces, and elements of the water budget. The tested steady-state parameters include: recharge, riverbed conductance, transmissivity, confining unit leakance, and boundary location. In the transient-state model, the storage coefficient was adjusted. The sensitivity of the model to changes in the calibrated values of these parameters was evaluated with respect to the simulated response of net base flow to the rivers, and the mean value of the absolute head residual. To provide a standard measurement of sensitivity from one parameter to another, the standard deviation of the absolute head residual was calculated. The steady-state model was shown to be most sensitive to changes in rates of recharge. When the recharge rate was held constant, the model was more sensitive to variations in transmissivity. Near the rivers, the riverbed conductance becomes the dominant parameter in controlling the heads. Changes in confining unit leakance had little effect on simulated base flow, but greatly affected head residuals. The model was relatively insensitive to changes in the location of no-flow boundaries and to moderate changes in the altitude of constant head boundaries. The storage coefficient was adjusted under transient conditions to illustrate the model ‘s sensitivity to changes in storativity. The model is less sensitive to an increase in storage coefficient than it is to a decrease in storage coefficient. As the storage coefficient decreased, the aquifer drawdown increases, the base flow decreased. The opposite response occurred when the storage coefficient was increased. (Author ‘s abstract)

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USGS Numbered Series

ProdID:

29096

Citation Author:

Pernik, Meribeth

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ENGLISH

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viii, 53 p. :ill., maps ;28 cm.

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U.S. Geological Survey,

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Water-Resources Investigations Report

Citation Series Code:

WRI

Citation Series Number:

87-4108

Citation Search Results Text:

Sensitivity analysis of a multilayer, finite-difference model of the Southeastern Coastal Plain regional aquifer system; Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina; 1987; WRI; 87-4108; Pernik, Meribeth