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An annual lake-volume model and a statistical water mass-balance model were used to estimate future lake-level probabilities for Devils Lake. Comparison of the models indicates upper exceedance levels of the water mass-balance model increase much more rapidly than those of the annual lake-volume model. For simulation year 5, the 99-percent exceedance is 1,417.6 feet above sea level for the annual lake-volume model and 1,423.2 feet above sea level for the water mass-balance model.
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Lake-level frequency analysis for Devils Lake, North Dakota