The epidemic potential of a disease is traditionally assessed using the basic reproductive number, R0. However, in populations with social or spatial structure a chronic disease is more likely to invade than an acute disease with the same R0, because it persists longer within each group and allows for more host movement between groups. Acute diseases ‘perceive’ a more structured host population, and it is more important to consider host population structure in analyses of these diseases. The probability of a pandemic does not arise independently from characteristics of either the host or disease, but rather from the interaction of host movement and disease recovery timescales. The R* statistic, a group-level equivalent of R0, is a better indicator of disease invasion in structured populations than the individual-level R0.
Additional publication details
|Publication Subtype||Journal Article|
|Title||Duelling timescales of host mixing and disease spread determine invasion of disease in structured populations|
|Series title||Ecology Letters|
|Contributing office(s)||Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center|
|Online Only (Y/N)||N|
|Additional Online Files (Y/N)||N|