Assessing variability and trends in Arctic sea ice distribution using satellite data

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Abstract

Trends in the annual minimum, minimum monthly-mean, and the sea ice extent at the end of August were investigated for the Barents and western Kara Seas and adjacent parts of the Arctic Ocean during 1966 to 1994 using data from Russian ice maps (1974-1994), Kosmos-Okean and ALMAZ SAR satellite series (1984-1994), and published literature. Four definitions of sea ice extent were examined based on thresholds of ice concentration: >90%, >70%, >40% and >10% (E1, E2, E3, and E4, respectively). Root-mean-square differences between sea ice maps and satellite-image sea ice classifications for coincident areas were subjected to Monte-Carlo analyses to construct confidence intervals for the 20-year ice-map trends. With probability p=0.8, the average 20-year change in the minimum monthly-mean sea ice extent (followed in brackets by the average change in the absolute annual minimum ice extent) was between 30-60% [19-71%], 29-61% [15-67%], 31-63%[18-69%] and 18-48% [7-55%] in the Barents sea; (-24)-(-4)% [(-25)-(12)%], (-27)-(-9)% [(-34)-(-4)%], (-32)-(-15)% [(-39)-(-9)%] and (-33)-(-15)%[(-38)-(-8)%] in the western Kara sea; and (-3)-19% [(-8)-29%], (-4)-18% [(-11)-26%,] (-6)-16% [(-11)(-24)%] and (-7)-15% [(-12)-24%] in the combined Barents and Kara Seas, for sea ice concentration E1-E4, respectively. Including published data from 1966-1983, the trend in minimum monthly-mean sea ice extent for the combined 30-year period showed an average increasing of 11.8% in the Barents Sea and of 47.4% reduction in the western Kara Sea; sea ice extent at the end of August showed an average reduction of 4.7% in the Barents Sea.

Publication type Conference Paper
Publication Subtype Conference Paper
Title Assessing variability and trends in Arctic sea ice distribution using satellite data
DOI 10.1109/IGARSS.1996.516429
Year Published 1996
Language English
Publisher IEEE
Contributing office(s) Alaska Biological Science Center
Description 3 p.
Larger Work Type Article
Larger Work Subtype Journal Article
Larger Work Title Proceedings, IGARSS 1996
First page 642
Last page 644
Conference Title IEEE International Symposium on Geoscience and Remote Sensing (IGARSS)
Conference Location Lincoln, NE
Conference Date May 31, 1996
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