A methodology for post-mainshock probabilistic assessment of building collapse risk

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Abstract

This paper presents a methodology for post-earthquake probabilistic risk (of damage) assessment that we propose in order to develop a computational tool for automatic or semi-automatic assessment. The methodology utilizes the same so-called risk integral which can be used for pre-earthquake probabilistic assessment. The risk integral couples (i) ground motion hazard information for the location of a structure of interest with (ii) knowledge of the fragility of the structure with respect to potential ground motion intensities. In the proposed post-mainshock methodology, the ground motion hazard component of the risk integral is adapted to account for aftershocks which are deliberately excluded from typical pre-earthquake hazard assessments and which decrease in frequency with the time elapsed since the mainshock. Correspondingly, the structural fragility component is adapted to account for any damage caused by the mainshock, as well as any uncertainty in the extent of this damage. The result of the adapted risk integral is a fully-probabilistic quantification of post-mainshock seismic risk that can inform emergency response mobilization, inspection prioritization, and re-occupancy decisions.

Additional publication details

Publication type Conference Paper
Publication Subtype Conference Paper
Title A methodology for post-mainshock probabilistic assessment of building collapse risk
ISBN 9780908960583
Year Published 2011
Language English
Publisher New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering
Publisher location Wellington, New Zealand
Contributing office(s) Geologic Hazards Science Center
Description 8 p.; Paper Number 210
Larger Work Type Book
Larger Work Subtype Conference publication
Larger Work Title Proceedings of the Ninth Pacific Conference on Earthquake Engineering: Building an earthquake resilient society
Conference Title 2011 Pacific Conference on Earthquake Engineering
Conference Location Aukland, New Zealand
Conference Date April 14-16, 2011