Analysis of the North American Breeding Bird Survey using hierarchical models

The Auk
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Abstract

We analyzed population change for 420 bird species from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) using a hierarchical log-linear model, and compared the results to route regression analysis results. Survey-wide trend estimates based on the hierarchical model were more precise than estimates from the earlier analysis. No consistent pattern of differences existed in magnitude of trends between the analysis methods. Survey-wide trend estimates changed substantially for 15 species between route regression and hierarchical model analyses. We compared regional estimates for states, provinces, and Bird Conservation Regions; differences observed in these regional analyses are likely a consequence of the route regression procedure's inadequate accommodation of temporal differences in survey effort. We used species-specific hierarchical model results to estimate composite change for groups of birds associated with major habitats and migration types. Grassland, aridland, and eastern forest obligate bird species declined, while urban/suburban species increased over the interval 1968-2008. No migration status group experienced significant changes, although Nearctic-Neotropical migrant species showed intervals of decline and permanent resident species increased almost 20% during the interval. Hierarchical model results better portrayed patterns of population change over time than route regression results; we recommend use of hierarchical models for BBS analyses.

Additional publication details

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Analysis of the North American Breeding Bird Survey using hierarchical models
Series title The Auk
DOI 10.1525/auk.2010.09220
Volume 128
Issue 1
Year Published 2011
Language English
Publisher American Ornithological Society
Contributing office(s) Patuxent Wildlife Research Center
Description 12 p.
First page 87
Last page 98
Other Geospatial North America