FORECAST MODEL FOR MODERATE EARTHQUAKES NEAR PARKFIELD, CALIFORNIA.
Journal of Geophysical Research
By: William D. Stuart, Ralph J. Archuleta, and Allan Goddard Lindh
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Abstract
The paper outlines a procedure for using an earthquake instability model and repeated geodetic measurements to attempt an earthquake forecast. The procedure differs from other prediction methods, such as recognizing trends in data or assuming failure at a critical stress level, by using a self-contained instability model that simulates both preseismic and coseismic faulting in a natural way. In short, physical theory supplies a family of curves, and the field data select the member curves whose continuation into the future constitutes a prediction. Model inaccuracy and resolving power of the data determine the uncertainty of the selected curves and hence the uncertainty of the earthquake time.
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | FORECAST MODEL FOR MODERATE EARTHQUAKES NEAR PARKFIELD, CALIFORNIA. |
| Series title | Journal of Geophysical Research |
| Volume | 90 |
| Issue | B1 |
| Year Published | 1985 |
| Language | English |
| Larger Work Type | Article |
| Larger Work Subtype | Journal Article |
| Larger Work Title | Journal of Geophysical Research |
| First page | 592 |
| Last page | 604 |
| Google Analytic Metrics | Metrics page |