Probability theory versus simulation of petroleum potential in play analysis

Annals of Operations Research



An analytic probabilistic methodology for resource appraisal of undiscovered oil and gas resources in play analysis is presented. This play-analysis methodology is a geostochastic system for petroleum resource appraisal in explored as well as frontier areas. An objective was to replace an existing Monte Carlo simulation method in order to increase the efficiency of the appraisal process. Underlying the two methods is a single geologic model which considers both the uncertainty of the presence of the assessed hydrocarbon and its amount if present. The results of the model are resource estimates of crude oil, nonassociated gas, dissolved gas, and gas for a geologic play in terms of probability distributions. The analytic method is based upon conditional probability theory and a closed form solution of all means and standard deviations, along with the probabilities of occurrence. ?? 1987 J.C. Baltzer A.G., Scientific Publishing Company.
Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Probability theory versus simulation of petroleum potential in play analysis
Series title Annals of Operations Research
DOI 10.1007/BF02187102
Volume 8
Issue 1
Year Published 1987
Language English
Publisher Baltzer Science Publishers
Publisher location Baarn/Kluwer Academic Publishers
Larger Work Type Article
Larger Work Subtype Journal Article
Larger Work Title Annals of Operations Research
First page 363
Last page 381
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