Earthquake hazard after a mainshock in California
Science
By: P.A. Reasenberg and L.M. Jones
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Abstract
After a strong earthquake, the possibility of the occurrence of either significant aftershocks or an even stronger mainshock is a continuing hazard that threatens the resumption of critical services and reoccupation of essential but partially damaged structures. A stochastic parametric model allows determination of probabilities for aftershocks and larger mainshocks during intervals following the mainshock. The probabilities depend strongly on the model parameters, which are estimated with Bayesian statistics from both the ongoing aftershock sequence and from a suite of historic California aftershock sequences. Probabilities for damaging aftershocks and greater mainshocks are typically well-constrained after the first day of the sequence, with accuracy increasing with time.
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Earthquake hazard after a mainshock in California |
| Series title | Science |
| Volume | 243 |
| Issue | 4895 |
| Year Published | 1989 |
| Language | English |
| Larger Work Type | Article |
| Larger Work Subtype | Journal Article |
| Larger Work Title | Science |
| First page | 1173 |
| Last page | 1176 |
| Google Analytic Metrics | Metrics page |