A channel dynamics model for real-time flood forecasting

Water Resources Research
By: , and 



A new channel dynamics scheme (alternative system predictor in real time (ASPIRE)), designed specifically for real-time river flow forecasting, is introduced to reduce uncertainty in the forecast. ASPIRE is a storage routing model that limits the influence of catchment model forecast errors to the downstream station closest to the catchment. Comparisons with the Muskingum routing scheme in field tests suggest that the ASPIRE scheme can provide more accurate forecasts, probably because discharge observations are used to a maximum advantage and routing reaches (and model errors in each reach) are uncoupled. Using ASPIRE in conjunction with the Kalman filter did not improve forecast accuracy relative to a deterministic updating procedure. Theoretical analysis suggests that this is due to a large process noise to measurement noise ratio.

Additional publication details

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title A channel dynamics model for real-time flood forecasting
Series title Water Resources Research
DOI 10.1029/WR025i004p00691
Volume 25
Issue 4
Year Published 1989
Language English
Publisher American Geophysical Union
Description 15 p.
First page 691
Last page 705
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