Prospects for eruption prediction in near real-time

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THE 'materials science' method for eruption prediction1-3 arises from the application of a general law governing the failure of materials: ??-?? ??-A=0, where A and ?? are empirical constants, and ?? is an observable quantity such as ground deformation, seismicity or gas emission. This law leads to the idea of the 'inverse-rate' plot, in which the time of failure can be estimated by extrapolation of the curve of ??-1 versus time to a pre-deter-mined intercept. Here we suggest that this method can be combined with real-time seismic amplitude monitoring to provide a tool for near-real-time eruption prediction, and we demonstrate how it might have been used to predict two dome-growth episodes at Mount St Helens volcano in 1985 and 1986, and two explosive eruptions at Redoubt volcano in 1989-90.

Additional publication details

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Prospects for eruption prediction in near real-time
Series title Nature
Volume 350
Issue 6320
Year Published 1991
Language English
Larger Work Type Article
Larger Work Subtype Journal Article
Larger Work Title Nature
First page 695
Last page 698
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