Prospects for eruption prediction in near real-time
Nature
By: B. Voight and Reinold R. Cornelius
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Abstract
THE 'materials science' method for eruption prediction1-3 arises from the application of a general law governing the failure of materials: ??-?? ??-A=0, where A and ?? are empirical constants, and ?? is an observable quantity such as ground deformation, seismicity or gas emission. This law leads to the idea of the 'inverse-rate' plot, in which the time of failure can be estimated by extrapolation of the curve of ??-1 versus time to a pre-deter-mined intercept. Here we suggest that this method can be combined with real-time seismic amplitude monitoring to provide a tool for near-real-time eruption prediction, and we demonstrate how it might have been used to predict two dome-growth episodes at Mount St Helens volcano in 1985 and 1986, and two explosive eruptions at Redoubt volcano in 1989-90.
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Prospects for eruption prediction in near real-time |
| Series title | Nature |
| Volume | 350 |
| Issue | 6320 |
| Year Published | 1991 |
| Language | English |
| Larger Work Type | Article |
| Larger Work Subtype | Journal Article |
| Larger Work Title | Nature |
| First page | 695 |
| Last page | 698 |
| Google Analytic Metrics | Metrics page |