Role of stress triggering in earthquake migration on the North Anatolian fault
Physics and Chemistry of the Earth
By: R. S. Stein, J.H. Dieterich, and A.A. Barka
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Abstract
Ten M???6.7 earthquakes ruptured 1,000 km of the North Anatolian fault (Turkey) during 1939-92, providing an unsurpassed opportunity to study how one large shock sets up the next. Calculations of the change in Coulomb failure stress reveal that 9 out of 10 ruptures were brought closer to failure by the preceding shocks, typically by 5 bars, equivalent to 20 years of secular stressing. We translate the calculated stress changes into earthquake probabilities using an earthquake-nucleation constitutive relation, which includes both permanent and transient stress effects. For the typical 10-year period between triggering and subsequent rupturing shocks in the Anatolia sequence, the stress changes yield an average three-fold gain in the ensuing earthquake probability. Stress is now calculated to be high at several isolated sites along the fault. During the next 30 years, we estimate a 15% probability of a M???6.7 earthquake east of the major eastern center of Erzincan, and a 12% probability for a large event south of the major western port city of Izmit. Such stress-based probability calculations may thus be useful to assess and update earthquake hazards elsewhere. ?? 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Role of stress triggering in earthquake migration on the North Anatolian fault |
| Series title | Physics and Chemistry of the Earth |
| DOI | 10.1016/S0079-1946(97)00039-6 |
| Volume | 21 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Year Published | 1996 |
| Language | English |
| Larger Work Type | Article |
| Larger Work Subtype | Journal Article |
| Larger Work Title | Physics and Chemistry of the Earth |
| First page | 225 |
| Last page | 230 |
| Google Analytic Metrics | Metrics page |