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A resampling procedure for generating conditioned daily weather sequences

Water Resources Research

By:
, , , , ORCID iD , , and
https://doi.org/10.1029/2003WR002747

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Abstract

A method is introduced to generate conditioned daily precipitation and temperature time series at multiple stations. The method resamples data from the historical record “nens” times for the period of interest (nens = number of ensemble members) and reorders the ensemble members to reconstruct the observed spatial (intersite) and temporal correlation statistics. The weather generator model is applied to 2307 stations in the contiguous United States and is shown to reproduce the observed spatial correlation between neighboring stations, the observed correlation between variables (e.g., between precipitation and temperature), and the observed temporal correlation between subsequent days in the generated weather sequence. The weather generator model is extended to produce sequences of weather that are conditioned on climate indices (in this case the Niño 3.4 index). Example illustrations of conditioned weather sequences are provided for a station in Arizona (Petrified Forest, 34.8°N, 109.9°W), where El Niño and La Niña conditions have a strong effect on winter precipitation. The conditioned weather sequences generated using the methods described in this paper are appropriate for use as input to hydrologic models to produce multiseason forecasts of streamflow.

Additional publication details

Publication type:
Article
Publication Subtype:
Journal Article
Title:
A resampling procedure for generating conditioned daily weather sequences
Series title:
Water Resources Research
DOI:
10.1029/2003WR002747
Volume:
40
Issue:
4
Year Published:
2004
Language:
English
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Description:
Article W04304; 15 p.