Probabilistic assessment of precipitation-triggered landslides using historical records of landslide occurrence, Seattle, Washington
Environmental & Engineering Geoscience
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Abstract
Ninety years of historical landslide records were used as input to the Poisson and binomial probability models. Results from these models show that, for precipitation-triggered landslides, approximately 9 percent of the area of Seattle has annual exceedance probabilities of 1 percent or greater. Application of the Poisson model for estimating the future occurrence of individual landslides results in a worst-case scenario map, with a maximum annual exceedance probability of 25 percent on a hillslope near Duwamish Head in West Seattle. Application of the binomial model for estimating the future occurrence of a year with one or more landslides results in a map with a maximum annual exceedance probability of 17 percent (also near Duwamish Head). Slope and geology both play a role in localizing the occurrence of landslides in Seattle. A positive correlation exists between slope and mean exceedance probability, with probability tending to increase as slope increases. Sixty-four percent of all historical landslide locations are within 150 m (500 ft, horizontal distance) of the Esperance Sand/Lawton Clay contact, but within this zone, no positive or negative correlation exists between exceedance probability and distance to the contact.
Study Area
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Probabilistic assessment of precipitation-triggered landslides using historical records of landslide occurrence, Seattle, Washington |
| Series title | Environmental & Engineering Geoscience |
| DOI | 10.2113/10.2.103 |
| Volume | 10 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Year Published | 2004 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | GSW |
| Contributing office(s) | Geologic Hazards Science Center |
| Description | 20 p. |
| First page | 103 |
| Last page | 122 |
| Country | United States |
| State | Washington |
| County | King County |
| City | Seattle |
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