Model uncertainties of the 2002 update of California seismic hazard maps
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
By: T. Cao, M.D. Petersen, and A. D. Frankel
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Abstract
In this article we present and explore the source and ground-motion model uncertainty and parametric sensitivity for the 2002 update of the California probabilistic seismic hazard maps. Our approach is to implement a Monte Carlo simulation that allows for independent sampling from fault to fault in each simulation. The source-distance dependent characteristics of the uncertainty maps of seismic hazard are explained by the fundamental uncertainty patterns from four basic test cases, in which the uncertainties from one-fault and two-fault systems are studied in detail. The California coefficient of variation (COV, ratio of the standard deviation to the mean) map for peak ground acceleration (10% of exceedance in 50 years) shows lower values (0.1-0.15) along the San Andreas fault system and other class A faults than along class B faults (0.2-0.3). High COV values (0.4-0.6) are found around the Garlock, Anacapa-Dume, and Palos Verdes faults in southern California and around the Maacama fault and Cascadia subduction zone in northern California.
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Model uncertainties of the 2002 update of California seismic hazard maps |
| Series title | Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America |
| DOI | 10.1785/0120050017 |
| Volume | 95 |
| Issue | 6 |
| Year Published | 2005 |
| Language | English |
| Larger Work Type | Article |
| Larger Work Subtype | Journal Article |
| Larger Work Title | Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America |
| First page | 2040 |
| Last page | 2057 |
| Google Analytic Metrics | Metrics page |