Balancing predation and egg harvest in a colonial seabird: A simulation model

Ecological Modelling
By: , and 



We developed an individual-based model to study the effects of different regimes of harvesting eggs and natural predation on reproductive success in a colony of the glaucous-winged gull (Larus glaucescens) in Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska. The model incorporates the sequence of egg laying, relaying, and incubation to hatching for individual nests and calculates hatching success, incubation length, and the total number of eggs laid (as a result of re-nesting and relaying) in all nests in the colony. Stochasticity is incorporated in the distribution of nest lay dates, predation rates, and nests attacked during predation and harvest events. We estimated parameter values by fitting the model to data collected at a small colony during 1999 and 2000 using maximum likelihood. We then simulated harvests and analyzed model predictions. Model outputs indicate that harvesting early, and at one time, provides a predictable take of eggs with the least impact to gulls.

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Balancing predation and egg harvest in a colonial seabird: A simulation model
Series title Ecological Modelling
DOI 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.11.002
Volume 195
Issue 3-4
Year Published 2006
Language English
Publisher Elsevier
Contributing office(s) Alaska Science Center
Description 9 p.
Larger Work Type Article
Larger Work Subtype Journal Article
First page 318
Last page 326
Online Only (Y/N) N
Additional Online Files (Y/N) N
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