Hindcasting potential hurricane impacts on rapidly changing barrier islands

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Abstract

Hindcasts of the coastal impact of Hurricane Ivan on Santa Rosa Island, Florida, using a storm-impact scaling model that compares hurricane-induced water levels to local dune morphology, were found to have an accuracy of 68% in predicting the occurrence of one of four impact regimes: swash, collision, overwash, and inundation. Errors were overwhelming under-predictions of the regime where the observed response was more extreme than had been expected. This is related to the evolution of the profile during the storm. Mean pre-storm dune elevations decreased by 1.9 m over the 75-km long island as most of the dunes were completely eroded during the storm. Dramatic morphologic change during a hurricane makes barrier islands more vulnerable to overwash and inundation than will be predicted based on pre-storm dune parameters. Incorporation of the timing of rising water levels relative to storm-induced profile evolution is required to improve model accuracy.

Additional publication details

Publication type Conference Paper
Publication Subtype Conference Paper
Title Hindcasting potential hurricane impacts on rapidly changing barrier islands
ISBN 0784409269; 9780784409268
DOI 10.1061/40926(239)75
Year Published 2007
Language English
Publisher American Society of Civil Engineers
Contributing office(s) Coastal and Marine Geology Program
Description 10 p.
Larger Work Title Coastal Sediments '07 - Proceedings of 6th International Symposium on Coastal Engineering and Science of Coastal Sediment Processes
First page 976
Last page 985
Conference Title 6th International Symposium on Coastal Engineering and Science of Coastal Sediment Processes
Conference Location New Orleans, LA