Hindcasting potential hurricane impacts on rapidly changing barrier islands
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Abstract
Hindcasts of the coastal impact of Hurricane Ivan on Santa Rosa Island, Florida, using a storm-impact scaling model that compares hurricane-induced water levels to local dune morphology, were found to have an accuracy of 68% in predicting the occurrence of one of four impact regimes: swash, collision, overwash, and inundation. Errors were overwhelming under-predictions of the regime where the observed response was more extreme than had been expected. This is related to the evolution of the profile during the storm. Mean pre-storm dune elevations decreased by 1.9 m over the 75-km long island as most of the dunes were completely eroded during the storm. Dramatic morphologic change during a hurricane makes barrier islands more vulnerable to overwash and inundation than will be predicted based on pre-storm dune parameters. Incorporation of the timing of rising water levels relative to storm-induced profile evolution is required to improve model accuracy.
| Publication type | Conference Paper |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Conference Paper |
| Title | Hindcasting potential hurricane impacts on rapidly changing barrier islands |
| ISBN | 0784409269; 9780784409268 |
| DOI | 10.1061/40926(239)75 |
| Year Published | 2007 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | American Society of Civil Engineers |
| Contributing office(s) | Coastal and Marine Geology Program |
| Description | 10 p. |
| Larger Work Title | Coastal Sediments '07 - Proceedings of 6th International Symposium on Coastal Engineering and Science of Coastal Sediment Processes |
| First page | 976 |
| Last page | 985 |
| Conference Title | 6th International Symposium on Coastal Engineering and Science of Coastal Sediment Processes |
| Conference Location | New Orleans, LA |
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