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Statistical models of temperature in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta under climate-change scenarios and ecological implications

Estuaries and Coasts
By: , , , and 
https://doi.org/10.1007/s12237-010-9369-z

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Abstract

Changes in water temperatures caused by climate change in California's Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta will affect the ecosystem through physiological rates of fishes and invertebrates. This study presents statistical models that can be used to forecast water temperature within the Delta as a response to atmospheric conditions. The daily average model performed well (R2 values greater than 0.93 during verification periods) for all stations within the Delta and San Francisco Bay provided there was at least 1 year of calibration data. To provide long-term projections of Delta water temperature, we forced the model with downscaled data from climate scenarios. Based on these projections, the ecological implications for the delta smelt, a key species, were assessed based on temperature thresholds. The model forecasts increases in the number of days above temperatures causing high mortality (especially along the Sacramento River) and a shift in thermal conditions for spawning to earlier in the year.
Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Statistical models of temperature in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta under climate-change scenarios and ecological implications
Series title Estuaries and Coasts
DOI 10.1007/s12237-010-9369-z
Volume 34
Issue 3
Year Published 2011
Language English
Publisher Springer
Publisher location Amsterdam, Netherlands
Contributing office(s) California Water Science Center, San Francisco Bay-Delta
Description 13 p.
First page 544
Last page 556
Country United States
State California
Other Geospatial Sacramento Delta;San Joaquin Delta
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