Estimating the hatchery fraction of a natural population: a Bayesian approach

North American Journal of Fisheries Management
By: , and 

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Abstract

There is strong and growing interest in estimating the proportion of hatchery fish that are in a natural population (the hatchery fraction). In a sample of fish from the relevant population, some are observed to be marked, indicating their origin as hatchery fish. The observed proportion of marked fish is usually less than the actual hatchery fraction, since the observed proportion is determined by the proportion originally marked, differential survival (usually lower) of marked fish relative to unmarked hatchery fish, and rates of mark retention and detection. Bayesian methods can work well in a setting such as this, in which empirical data are limited but for which there may be considerable expert judgment regarding these values. We explored a Bayesian estimation of the hatchery fraction using Monte Carlo–Markov chain methods. Based on our findings, we created an interactive Excel tool to implement the algorithm, which we have made available for free.

Additional publication details

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Estimating the hatchery fraction of a natural population: a Bayesian approach
Series title North American Journal of Fisheries Management
DOI 10.1080/02755947.2011.633687
Volume 31
Issue 5
Year Published 2011
Language English
Publisher Taylor & Francis
Publisher location London, UK
Contributing office(s) Western Fisheries Research Center
Description 9 p.
Larger Work Type Article
Larger Work Subtype Journal Article
Larger Work Title North American Journal of Fisheries Management
First page 934
Last page 942
Country United States
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