Trimming the UCERF2 hazard logic tree

Seismological Research Letters
By: , and 



The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast 2 (UCERF2) is a fully time‐dependent earthquake rupture forecast developed with sponsorship of the California Earthquake Authority (Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities [WGCEP], 2007; Field et al., 2009). UCERF2 contains 480 logic‐tree branches reflecting choices among nine modeling uncertainties in the earthquake rate model shown in Figure 1. For seismic hazard analysis, it is also necessary to choose a ground‐motion‐prediction equation (GMPE) and set its parameters. Choosing among four next‐generation attenuation (NGA) relationships results in a total of 1920 hazard calculations per site. The present work is motivated by a desire to reduce the computational effort involved in a hazard analysis without understating uncertainty. We set out to assess which branching points of the UCERF2 logic tree contribute most to overall uncertainty, and which might be safely ignored (set to only one branch) without significantly biasing results or affecting some useful measure of uncertainty. The trimmed logic tree will have all of the original choices from the branching points that contribute significantly to uncertainty, but only one arbitrarily selected choice from the branching points that do not.
Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Trimming the UCERF2 hazard logic tree
Series title Seismological Research Letters
DOI 10.1785/0220120012
Volume 83
Issue 5
Year Published 2012
Language English
Contributing office(s) Geologic Hazards Science Center
Description 14 p.
First page 815
Last page 828
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