Community variations in population exposure to near-field tsunami hazards as a function of pedestrian travel time to safety

Natural Hazards
By:  and 



Efforts to characterize population exposure to near-field tsunami threats typically focus on quantifying the number and type of people in tsunami-hazard zones. To develop and prioritize effective risk-reduction strategies, emergency managers also need information on the potential for successful evacuations and how this evacuation potential varies among communities. To improve efforts to properly characterize and differentiate near-field tsunami threats among multiple communities, we assess community variations in population exposure to tsunamis as a function of pedestrian travel time to safety. We focus our efforts on the multiple coastal communities in Grays Harbor and Pacific Counties (State of Washington, USA), where a substantial resident and visitor population is threatened by near-field tsunamis related to a potential Cascadia subduction zone earthquake. Anisotropic, path-distance modeling is conducted to estimate travel times to safety and results are merged with various population data, including residents, employees, public venues, and dependent-care facilities. Results suggest that there is substantial variability among communities in the number of people that may have insufficient time to evacuate. Successful evacuations may be possible in some communities assuming slow-walking speeds, are plausible in others if travel speeds are increased, and are unlikely in another set of communities given the large distances and short time horizon. Emergency managers can use these results to prioritize the location and determine the most appropriate type of tsunami risk-reduction strategies, such as education and training in areas where evacuations are plausible and vertical-evacuation structures in areas where they are not.

Study Area

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Community variations in population exposure to near-field tsunami hazards as a function of pedestrian travel time to safety
Series title Natural Hazards
DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0434-8
Volume 3
Issue 65
Year Published 2013
Language English
Publisher Springer
Contributing office(s) Oregon Water Science Center
Description 26 p.
Larger Work Type Article
Larger Work Subtype Journal Article
Larger Work Title Natural Hazards
First page 1603
Last page 1628
Country United States
State Washington
County Grays Harbor County;Pacific County
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