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Forecasting distribution of numbers of large fires

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Abstract

Systems to estimate forest fire potential commonly utilize one or more indexes that relate to expected fire behavior; however they indicate neither the chance that a large fire will occur, nor the expected number of large fires. That is, they do not quantify the probabilistic nature of fire danger. In this work we use large fire occurrence information from the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity project, and satellite and surface observations of fuel conditions in the form of the Fire Potential Index, to estimate two aspects of fire danger: 1) the probability that a 1 acre ignition will result in a 100+ acre fire, and 2) the probabilities of having at least 1, 2, 3, or 4 large fires within a Predictive Services Area in the forthcoming week. These statistical processes are the main thrust of the paper and are used to produce two daily national forecasts that are available from the U.S. Geological Survey, Earth Resources Observation and Science Center and via the Wildland Fire Assessment System. A validation study of our forecasts for the 2013 fire season demonstrated good agreement between observed and forecasted values.

Additional publication details

Publication type Book
Publication Subtype Conference publication
Title Forecasting distribution of numbers of large fires
Year Published 2014
Language English
Publisher Rocky Mountain Research Station
Contributing office(s) Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center
Description 6 p.
Larger Work Type Conference Paper
Larger Work Title Proceedings of the large wildland fires conference
First page 181
Last page 187
Conference Title Large wildland fires conference
Conference Location Missoula, MT
Conference Date May 19-23, 2014
Online Only (Y/N) N
Additional Online Files (Y/N) N