Re-evaluating the northeastern Minnesota moose decline and the role of wolves

Journal of Wildlife Management
By:  and 



We re-evaluated findings from Lenarz et al. (2009) that adult moose (Alces alces) survival in northeastern Minnesota was related to high January temperatures and that predation by wolves (Canis lupus) played a minor role. We found significant inverse relationships between annual wolf numbers in part of the moose range and various moose demographics from 2003 to 2013 that suggested a stronger role of wolves than heretofore believed. To re-evaluate the temperature findings, we conducted a simulation study, mimicking the approach taken by Lenarz et al. (2009), to explore the potential for concluding a significant relationship exists between temperature and survival, when no association exists. We found that the high R2s and low probabilities associated with the regression models in Lenarz et al. (2009) should be viewed cautiously in light of the large number of fitted models (m = 45) and few observations (n = 6 for each of 5 response variables).

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Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Re-evaluating the northeastern Minnesota moose decline and the role of wolves
Series title Journal of Wildlife Management
DOI 10.1002/jwmg.775
Volume 78
Issue 7
Year Published 2014
Language English
Publisher The Wildlife Society
Contributing office(s) Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center
Description 8 p.
Larger Work Type Article
Larger Work Subtype Journal Article
Larger Work Title Journal of Wildlife Management
First page 1143
Last page 1150
Country United States
State Minnesota
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