Analysis of the present and future winter Pacific-North American teleconnection in the ECHAM5 global and RegCM3 regional climate models

Climate Dynamics
By: , and 

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Abstract

We use the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (NCEP) and the MPI/ECHAM5 general circulation model to drive the RegCM3 regional climate model to assess the ability of the models to reproduce the spatiotemporal aspects of the Pacific-North American teleconnection (PNA) pattern. Composite anomalies of the NCEP-driven RegCM3 simulations for 1982–2000 indicate that the regional model is capable of accurately simulating the key features (500-hPa heights, surface temperature, and precipitation) of the positive and negative phases of the PNA with little loss of information in the downscaling process. The basic structure of the PNA is captured in both the ECHAM5 global and ECHAM5-driven RegCM3 simulations. The 1950–2000 ECHAM5 simulation displays similar temporal and spatial variability in the PNA index as that of NCEP; however, the magnitudes of the positive and negative phases are weaker than those of NCEP. The RegCM3 simulations clearly differentiate the climatology and associated anomalies of snow water equivalent and soil moisture of the positive and negative PNA phases. In the RegCM3 simulations of the future (2050–2100), changes in the location and extent of the Aleutian low and the continental high over North America alter the dominant flow patterns associated with positive and negative PNA modes. The future projections display a shift in the patterns of the relationship between the PNA and surface climate variables, which suggest the potential for changes in the PNA-related surface hydrology of North America.
Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Analysis of the present and future winter Pacific-North American teleconnection in the ECHAM5 global and RegCM3 regional climate models
Series title Climate Dynamics
DOI 10.1007/s00382-013-1910-x
Volume 42
Issue 5-6
Year Published 2014
Language English
Publisher Springer
Contributing office(s) National Research Program - Western Branch
Description 12 p.
Larger Work Type Article
Larger Work Subtype Journal Article
Larger Work Title Climate Dynamics
First page 1671
Last page 1682
Other Geospatial North America, North Pacific
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