Landslide modeling and forecasting—recent progress by the u.s. geological survey

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Abstract

Landslide studies by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) are focused on two main objectives: scientific understanding and forecasting. The first objective is to gain better understanding of the physical processes involved in landslide initiation and movement. This objective is largely in support of the second objective, to develop predictive capabilities to answer the main hazard questions. Answers to the following six questions are needed to characterize the hazard from landslides: (1) Where will landslides occur? (2) What kind(s) of landslides will occur? (3) When will landslides occur? (4) How big will the landslides be? (5) How fast will the landslides travel? (6) How far will the landslides go? Although these questions are sometimes recast in different terms, such as frequency or recurrence rather than timing (when), the questions or their variants address the spatial, physical, and temporal aspects of landslide hazards. Efforts to develop modeling and forecasting capabilities by the USGS are primarily focused on specific landslide types that pose a high degree of hazard and show relatively high potential for predictability.

Additional publication details

Publication type Conference Paper
Publication Subtype Abstract or summary
Title Landslide modeling and forecasting—recent progress by the u.s. geological survey
Year Published 2015
Language English
Publisher Association of Environmental and Engineering Geologists
Contributing office(s) Geologic Hazards Science Center
Description 8 p.
Larger Work Title Proceedings of Time to Face the Landslide Hazard Dilemma—Bridging Science, Policy, Public Safety, and Potential Loss
First page 57
Last page 64
Conference Title Time to Face the Landslide Hazard Dilemma—Bridging Science, Policy, Public Safety, and Potential Loss
Conference Location Seattle, Washington
Conference Date February 26-27, 2015
Online Only (Y/N) N
Additional Online Files (Y/N) N