Time‐dependent renewal‐model probabilities when date of last earthquake is unknown

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
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Abstract

We derive time-dependent, renewal-model earthquake probabilities for the case in which the date of the last event is completely unknown, and compare these with the time-independent Poisson probabilities that are customarily used as an approximation in this situation. For typical parameter values, the renewal-model probabilities exceed Poisson results by more than 10% when the forecast duration exceeds ~20% of the mean recurrence interval. We also derive probabilities for the case in which the last event is further constrained to have occurred before historical record keeping began (the historic open interval), which can only serve to increase earthquake probabilities for typically applied renewal models.We conclude that accounting for the historic open interval can improve long-term earthquake rupture forecasts for California and elsewhere.

Additional publication details

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Time‐dependent renewal‐model probabilities when date of last earthquake is unknown
Series title Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
DOI 10.1785/0120140096
Volume 105
Year Published 2015
Language English
Publisher Seismological Society of America
Publisher location Stanford, CA
Contributing office(s) Geologic Hazards Science Center
Description 5 p.
First page 459
Last page 463
Online Only (Y/N) N
Additional Online Files (Y/N) N