Changes in erosion and flooding risk due to long-term and cyclic oceanographic trends

Geophysical Research Letters
By:  and 

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Abstract

We assess temporal variations in waves and sea level, which are driving factors for beach 23 erosion and coastal flooding in the northern Gulf of Mexico. We find that long-term trends in 24 the relevant variables have caused an increase of ~30% in the erosion/flooding risk since the 25 1980s. Changes in the wave climate-which have often been ignored in earlier assessments-26 were at least as important as sea-level rise (SLR). In the next decades, SLR will likely become 27 the dominating driver and may in combination with ongoing changes in the wave climate (and 28 depending on the emission scenario) escalate the erosion/flooding risk by up to 300% over the 29 next 30 years. We also find significant changes in the seasonal cycles of sea level and 30 significant wave height, which have in combination caused a considerable increase of the 31 erosion/flooding risk in summer and decrease in winter (superimposed onto the long-term 32 trends)

Additional publication details

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Changes in erosion and flooding risk due to long-term and cyclic oceanographic trends
Series title Geophysical Research Letters
DOI 10.1002/2015GL063876
Volume 42
Issue 8
Year Published 2015
Language English
Publisher American Geophysical Union
Publisher location Washington, D.C.
Contributing office(s) St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center
Description 8 p.
First page 2943
Last page 2950
Online Only (Y/N) N
Additional Online Files (Y/N) N
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